Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-19T00:26:42

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is currently Background to Moderate. As the current fast winds ease, there is a chance for flux to increase, perhaps bringing periods of High at maximum, however the extent and persistence of this is Low confidence.

The associated 24hr fluence is expected to see a rising trend, as indicated by recurrence and to some degree the forecast in the MOSWOC REFM. The prediction comes from REFM having knowledge of the solar wind levels during the last 20-days, but not the cause of this enhancement, so this model is likely to be attributing the fast winds purely to coronal hole connections rather than CME arrivals. However, there is a slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold from day 2 (20 Nov) is possible.