Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-17T00:45:35

GOES19 >2 MeV electron flux is currently Background to Moderate. CME impacts on 12-13 Nov potentially increased electron flux in the radiation belts, although compressed below GEO due to the subsequent strong solar winds. Further glancing CMEs through the subsequent days, along with the weak connection to CH95/-, has likely kept any elevated flux at orbital levels below GEO. However this has also increased the uncertainty over the extent and persistence of any elevated flux. Previous strong CME arrival events (May 2024, Oct 2024) also showed only limited subsequent electron enhancement at GEO, further reducing this confidence.  

Overall, as the current fast winds ease, there is a chance for flux to increase, perhaps bringing periods of High at maximum, however the extent and persistence of this is Low confidence.

The associated 24hr fluence is expected to see a rising trend, as indicated by MOSWOC REFM, however this is considered to be overestimating the likely enhancement.  This is due to REFM having knowledge of the solar wind speeds during the last 20-days, but not the cause of this enhancement, so this model is likely to be attributing the fast winds purely to coronal hole connections rather than CME arrivals. However, a slight chance of exceeding the Active threshold by the end of day 2 (18 Nov) is maintained.