Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-14T12:27:10

GOES-19 >2 MeV electron flux is currently at moderate levels. The recent geomagnetic activity and very strong winds from these CMEs are expected to have caused an increase in electron flux in the radiation belt, although this is likely currently compressed below GEO by the strong wind speeds. As the wind speeds decline, electron flux at GEO is expected to increase, perhaps quite sharply.

The associated 24hr fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. However, an increase in fluence is expected in the coming days, with Active fluence becoming likely Days 2 and 3 (15 and 16 Nov) and expected by Day 4 (18 Nov). The REFM model is struggling to give good guidance due to the recent lack of data feeding into the model, but the overall trend of the fluence rising above the Active threshold is accepted.