Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-13T00:52:39

GOES-19 >2 MeV electron flux is currently at moderate levels, having declined from recent highs likely associated with ongoing proton storm activity. Further proton enhancements from flares and any CME arrivals may affect electron counts but this is highly uncertain. Given uncertainties in CME impacts and proton event evolution, any further periods of elevated electron flux is considered low confidence, with values expected to continue mostly below Active levels.

The associated 24hr fluence is currently unknown but is expected to drop below thresholds over the next 24 hours. Data outages with the REFM model is also adding to the already low forecast confidence.