Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-07T13:28:17

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to stay subdued at Background with the ongoing CME influence along with further CME arrivals expected through day 1-3 (07-09 Nov) with the ongoing potential for further Earth-directed CMEs from AR4724. These may result in some charging of the Van Allen Belt, and as any CME activity eases, then this may allow for increasing spells of Moderate to High flux later in the period, however this is Low confidence   

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) and is expected to persist at this level, unless geomagnetic activity eases and prolonged periods of High flux are observed. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM.