MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-07T00:20:33
GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is expected to stay subdued at background to moderate levels as CME arrivals and CME activity occurs. Later in the period, if activity declines, there is a chance for periods of Moderate to High to occur as a result of the recent coronal hole and CME enhancements.
The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 level) and is not expected to rise above unless geomagnetic activity eases and prolonged periods of High flux are observed. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-11-07T00:20:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |