MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-05T12:35:38
GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has been varying between moderate and high levels, attributable to recent geomagnetic activity from coronal hole activity. For the wider event, electron flux has peaked and overall a declining trend is likely with periods of moderate flux becoming more prolonged. Any CME arrivals and/or HSS onset will further suppress electron counts at GEO in the coming days.
The associated 24hr Fluence is now showing a flat trend around the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. A declining trend is expected by Days 2 and 3 (06 and 07 Nov). This trend is supported by MOSWOC REFM output, which is considered reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-11-05T12:35:38 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |