Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-05T00:17:56

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is periodically varying between Moderate and High levels, attributable to recent geomagnetic activity from coronal hole activity. For the wider event, electron flux has peaked and a probable declining trend overall is likely with periods of Moderate flux becoming more prolonged. Any CME arrivals and/or HSS onset will further suppress electron counts at GEO.

The associated 24hr Fluence is now showing a flat trend and is close to the Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu). A probable declining trend is expected by Days 2 and 3 (06 and 07 Nov). This trend is supported by MOSWOC REFM output and Recurrence values, although tracking lower than both at present.