Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-11-02T12:31:36

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is currently High, after the recent fast wind enhancement from CH91 and CH92, and the respective geomagnetic activity. While this has seen a similar response compared to the previous rotation, peak flux levels are likely to remain below those that previously occurred, given the weaker connection and slower solar wind speeds that were observed. A further reduction is also possible later on day 1 and day 2 (01-02 Nov) from the low confidence glancing CME arrivals, perhaps briefly dropping out to background. While this may be a temporary reduction, any recovery is likely to be to lower peak levels, reducing the confidence for further prolonged periods of High later in the period. 

The associated 24 hr fluence is currently Active and expected to persist at this level with a slowly declining trend, at least until later day 1 (02 Nov), when confidence then falls due to the uncertainty over how the flux will react to any of the glancing CMEs. While there is a slight chance of reaching Very Active, similar to last rotation, the potential for this is constrained by these CME arrivals and the weaker connection on this occasion. MOSWOC REFM and recurrence are subsequently considered to be currently over-estimating the likely peak fluence, but are a good guide to the overall trend.