Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-31T00:26:47

GOES19 >2MeV electron flux is currently at background to moderate levels. The HSS onset from CH91/92 is later than originally anticipated and has taken a time to gradually strengthen. Moderate electron flux is expected to continue initially, then eventually rising to diurnally high peaks late in the period. Any CME influence on Days 2-3 (01-02 Nov) could reduce the flux once again even if it does start to rise, however confidence here is very low.

The associated 24 hr fluence is currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold and MOSWOC REFM shows an increasing trend, whilst remaining below the Active threshold, which is accepted.  The 27-day recurrence is overestimating fluence values, as a very strong HSS connection was observed on the previous rotation, resulting in Active fluence becoming Very Active during the period.