Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-26T00:18:52

GOES19 >10MeV electron flux is varying between Background and Moderate levels, and is likely to see a drop out to mainly background from any CME arrival on day 1 (26 Oct), and any subsequent fast wind enhancement day 2-3 (27-28 Oct).  While this may charge the Van Allen Belt, any subsequent rise in observed flux at GEO is most likely to occur either late day 3 or day 4 (28-29 Oct).

The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain below Active (<1e8 integrated pfu) initially, with a declining trend on the passage of a CME on 26 Oct and High Speed Stream from 27 Oct and a subsequent rise thereafter, bringing a slight chance by day 4 (29 Oct). This is supported by both 27-day recurrence and MOSWOC REFM.