Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-25T00:15:11

High energy electron flux has shown a relatively stable diurnal oscillation, persisting at generally Moderate levels despite the current fast wind from CH90. Little change is expected today and tomorrow. The next influence on the flux is expected to be geomagnetic activity associated with any weak CME's arrival, plus the CIR leading CH91/92 on Day 3 (27th Oct), suppressing the high energy electron count. The high energy electron flux is then expected to remain suppressed as the HSS from CH91 and CH92 becomes established through Day 4.

Overall there is a Slight Chance of Active (1e8 integrated flux) fluence being reached. Therefore MOSWOC REFM is considered to be giving good guidance, although a steady or declining trend for the fluence is preferred in contrast the the model's forecast upward trend.