MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-24T00:28:28
GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has only shown a muted response to the recent fast wind enhancement, persisting at Moderate levels. While there remains a chance of this rising towards High over days 1-2 (24-25 Oct), this is now looking less likely, with mainly Moderate flux expected to persist, and perhaps easing to Background at times.
The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold level (1e8 integrated flux) with a rising trend probable for a time. This is supported by 27-day recurrence and MOSWOC REFM output.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-10-24T00:28:28 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |