MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-22T00:18:22
GOES19 >2MeV electron flux has only shown a muted response to the recent fast wind enhancement, persisting at Moderate. While there remains a chance of this rising towards High over days 1-2 (22-23 Oct), this is now looking less likely, with mainly Moderate flux expected to persist, and perhaps easing to Background.
The associated 24 hr fluence is expected to remain at background, perhaps with a rising trend at first. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM and 27-day recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-10-22T00:18:22 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |