Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-20T00:11:10

The past UTC offered a very muted diurnal oscillation recorded at GOES19 at GEO. Persistence would have electron flux soon rising to High diurnal peaks, but overall probably falling short of Active 24-hour integrated flux. The complication comes from the relative unknown contribution of CMEs into and over the past UTC weekend, and their influence in charging or redistributing electrons from the Van Allen belts. All considered, the trend in fluence should soon be upward, probably plateauing in a new steady state and a Chance of Active by midweek UTC as the fast wind from CH87/- matures.