Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-19T00:16:17

High energy electron flux at GEO showed an oscillation between Background and Moderate levels under the influence of probable fast wind and CME effects. While these have most likely peaked, there remains a Chance of G1 intervals that should continue to mean that the outer Van Allen belt lies inside GEO. A gradual recovery outwards is expected in the first part of the new UTC working week, although the magnitude of the fast wind from CH87 is thus far marginal in terms of being able to supply Active fluence - the complicating factor being any additional charging by the CME component.

All considered, there is a rising eventual Chance of 24-hour Active electron fluence, probably saturating here from Tuesday 21 October as the solar wind environment settles down.