Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-18T00:24:27

Electron flux continues to follow a slow but typically erratic decline following the enhancement from the previous coronal hole. The inbound geomagnetic features of further CME transients and the upcoming coronal hole fast wind should allow this trend to fall further in coming days before eventually rebounding later in the period due to the expected charging from CH87/- . Daily peaks at or near High levels remain possible, becoming probable from day 3 or day 4 (20/21 Oct).

Overall, electron fluence is expected to be a little below the Active (>1e8 pfu) level at first, with a slight decreasing trend. Following the arrival of CH87's fast wind (due 19 Oct), there is an increasing likelihood of Active fluence from day 3 (20 Oct) onward as the high speed stream repopulates the Van Allen belts and they subsequently relax.