Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-16T00:21:28

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux remains at mostly High levels, with an observed peak 2850 pfu at 15/1540 UTC. With the potential arrival of a CME on day 1 (16 Oct) electron flux levels may be knocked down to mostly background levels, this is then most likely to stay at background to moderate with possible high peaks through the forecast period. 

The associated 24 hours electron fluence is currently above the Active threshold, although on a declining trend. Given the potential for various CMEs through the period the confidence lowers significantly for Active fluence conditions. MOSWOC REFM output shows a marked decline in Active fluence, although this isn't quite trusted, a declining trend is forecast due to any significant geomagnetic activity through day 1 (16 oct) knocking the electrons away from GEO. On the contrary, the reoccurrence model, is believed to be too High.