Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-15T00:19:36

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux remains at mostly High levels, with an observed peak 5130 at 14/1550 UTC. As the solar wind eases we are likely to see the electron flux remain predominantly High through day 1 (15 Oct). Confidence then lowers, as a potential CME arrival could help redistribute electron populations through day 2 (16 Oct), with a possible reduction in levels.

The associated 24 hours electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8) through day 1 (15 Oct), however for the reasoning given above confidence then lowers for Active fluence conditions to be maintained into days 2 and 3 (16 and 17 Oct). In the short-term the overall trend from the recurrence REFM output appears to offer reasonable short-term guidance although it has recently been under-predicting fluence levels. Conversely MOSWOC REFM is significantly over-predicting fluence levels. Confidence hen lowers in the MOSWOC Models with the aforementioned CMEs.