Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-14T00:09:18

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux has increased from Moderate to mostly High levels, peak 4080pfu at 13/1425 UTC. As the solar wind eases we are likely to see the electron flux rise further to be predominantly High through days 1 and 2 (14 and 15 Oct). Confidence then lowers, as a potential CME arrival could help redistribute electron populations through day 3 (16 Oct), with a possible reduction in levels. 

The associated 24 hours electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8) through days 1 and 2 (14 and 15 Oct), however for the reasoning given above confidence then lowers for Active fluence conditions to be maintained into days 3 and 4 (16 and 17 Oct). In the short-term the overall trend from the recurrence REFM model looks good to follow, although it is under-predicting fluence levels. Conversely MOSWOC REFM is significantly over-predicting fluence levels and is considered poor guidance.