Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-13T00:13:53

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux was a little lower although still at Moderate to High levels, peak 1710pfu at 12/1720 UTC, as the high speed stream from CH85/- suppresses the Van Allen belts away from the location of GEO. While we remain under the influence of the strong solar winds, electron flux is expected to be at mainly Background to Moderate levels. However, once the solar wind eases we may see the electron flux rise to High levels again in the second half of the forecast period. 

The associated 24 hours electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8) through the start of the period, with a chance of becoming Active from day 2 (14 Oct) and a likelihood from day 3 (15 Oct). This is reflected better in the recurrence REFM model, and given CH85/- is a recurrent feature, its overall trend looks good to follow, although is subject to significant uncertainly based on how much geomagnetic activity we encounter.