Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-08T00:13:11

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux has persisted High after the recent notable connection to the fast winds CH83 and CH84. The passage of weak CMEs has had very little affect on the solar wind environment at Earth, with only a very limited reduction in the observed electron flux. A further arrival remains possible early on 08 Oct, however this is also expected to be a relatively weak affair, with mainly High flux continuing. A gradual declining trend is likely through the period, however the potential for the onset of any fast wind from the small central disc coronal hole on days 3-4, followed by a stronger connection to the bulk of CH85/-, is likely to bring a more definitive drop out in observed values. Flux is likely to drop to Moderate or Background for a time, with an uncertain recovery on day 4 (11 Oct).  

The associated 24 hour fluence is on a declining trend after peaking Very Active at the start of 07 Oct, but remains Active at the start of this period. Fluence is likely to see a gradual declining trend, perhaps quicker if a stronger CME arrival is observed early on day 1 (08 Oct). This brings a chance of falling below Active by the end of day 2 (09 Oct), although confidence is Low. Any notable fast wind connection later in the period will bring a more definitive reduction below the Active level, most likely either day 4 or just beyond this period on day 5 (11-12 Oct). MOSWOC REFM is currently underestimating the observed fluence, and is likely easing the expected values too quickly.