Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-07T00:28:05

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux has persisted High after the recent notable connection to the fast winds CH83 and CH84. However, the persistence of these levels is low confidence with the potential for up to two CME arrivals on days 1-2 (-7-08 Oct), which could result in flux dropping out, with any subsequent recovery low confidence. However it is likely that High flux will continue at periods of diurnal maximum day 3-4 (09-10 Oct), and may continue throughout if only minimal arrivals are observed.

The associated 24 hour fluence rose above the Very Active level on 05 Oct, and is expected to continue at that level, at least at first on day 1 (06 Oct). With low confidence in the flux behaviour due tot he the anticipated weak CME arrivals, the longevity of Active fluence is also low confidence, likely dropping below Active later on day 2 (07 Oct), but with an ongoing chance of continuing at this level day 3-4 (08-09 Oct). MOSWOC REFM is currently underestimating the fluence, but does show a gradual declining trend, even without the arrival of any CMEs.