Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-06T00:14:40

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux is mainly High after the recent notable CME and coronal hole enhancements. High levels are expected to persist during Day 1 (05 Oct), probably reducing to Moderate levels at times especially as the risk of CME influence increases, with any enhancement in geomagnetic activity potentially redistributing the electrons at GEO.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist at the Active level over the coming days. The MOSWOC REFM model supports this, although the model is currently overestimating the fluence and is considered to be overestimating the forecast peak fluence. Conversely 27-day recurrence is not useful due to the very different solar wind environment on this rotation. A probable reduction in the fluence is likely Days 2-4 (06-08 Oct) due to a potential CME arrival, although this is low confidence.