Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-04T00:15:41

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux is mainly High after the recent notable CME and coronal hole enhancements. High levels are expected to persist during Days 1-2 (04-05 Oct), possibly reducing to Moderate or even Background levels by Days 3-4 (06-07 Oct) as the CME from the 03 Oct arrives, with any enhancement in geomagnetic activity probably supressing the electrons at GEO. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist at the Active level over the coming days. The MOSWOC REFM model supports this,  although the model is currently overestimating the fluence and is considered to be considerably overestimating the forecast peak fluence. Conversely 27-day recurrence is not useful due to the very different solar wind environment on this rotation. A possible reduction in the fluence is likely Days 3 and 4 (06-07 Oct) due to a possible CME arrival (06 Oct), although this is low confidence.