Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-02T00:15:19

GOES-19 >2MeV electron flux is mainly High after the recent notable CME and coronal hole enhancements. With no enhancements currently expected, High levels are expected to persist for much of the period, with only a chance of falling to Moderate or Background for brief periods, most likely at the minimum of the diurnal cycle or during any further geomagnetic storming that occurs. Although confidence for this persistence does decline a little later in the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to see a rising trend, likely above the Active level by the end of day 1 (02 Oct), and persisting at this level throughout. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM, although this is considered to be overestimating the peak fluence by around an order of magnitude. Conversely 27-day recurrence is not useful due to the very different solar wind environment on this rotation.