MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-10-01T00:20:12
GOES19 High energy (>2MeV) electron flux is currently at Background to Moderate where it is expected to remain Days 1-2 ( 01 Oct-02 Oct) following the onset of fast winds, along with recent CME influence. From Day 3 (03 Oct) there may be an increase in flux levels as solar wind pressure starts to decrease, but this is currently low confidence.
The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below Active levels (1e8 integrated pfu) for most of the period. However, a gradual increasing trend is anticipated toward the end of the period, potentially approaching the Active threshold, consistent with MOSWOC REFM forecasts and 27-day recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-10-01T00:20:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |