MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-30T00:15:25
GOES19 High energy (>2MeV) electron flux is currently at Background to Moderate. There is a small chance of a limited increase in flux days 1-3 (29 Sep- 01 Oct) following some weak coronal hole influence, perhaps peaking at High at diurnal maximum, but most likely persisting Background to Moderate.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected persist below Active (1e8 integrated pfu), in agreement with MOSWOC REFM's forecast and 27-day recurrence, but with a small chance of running a little above these model values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-09-30T00:15:25 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |