Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-27T00:15:43

GOES19 High energy (>2MeV) electron flux has shown a very slight day-on-day rise in its diurnal oscillation in the period, which briefly peaked at High levels on the 26 Sep, but mostly within the Moderate level. This represents a slight increase on levels seen on last rotation, where CH80's predecessor showed little effect on the near-Earth environment. On the current rotation, and as CH80/- continues to wane, there is perhaps a small chance of a further increase in flux maybe seeing diurnal High peaks, however these are not likely to result in Active 24-hour integrated fluence. The electron forecast inherits a good deal of its uncertainty from the geomagnetic forecast, however the results of any weekend fast winds and geomagnetism are not likely to be felt until conditions have settled at GEO in their wake, probably towards the middle of the following UTC working week.

MOSWOC REFM's forecast is felt realistic, however the influence of a transient will mean that the later part of its range is not to be taken too literally - being more reflective of conditions should the CME miss.