Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-26T00:12:10

GOES19 High energy (>2MeV) electron flux has persisted at Background to Moderate through the last 48 hours, despite the recent fast wind connection from CH80. Background to Moderate flux is expected to persist for much of the period, although temporary High levels are possible at the peak of the diurnal cycles days 1-2 (26-27 Sep).

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu), with a steady or slightly increasing trend. This is supported by MOSWOC REFM, which is currently running above observed value, although fluence is expected to remain slightly above the 27-day recurrence level, as the recent fast wind enhancement was barely observed on the previous rotation.