Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-25T00:23:22

GOES19 High energy (>2MeV) electron flux has persisted at Background to Moderate through the last 48 hours, despite the recent fast wind connection from CH80/-, likely due to the limited geomagnetic activity that was observed from this enhancement. While further increases are possible, perhaps peaking at High at times, mainly day 1-2 (25-26 Sep),  Background to Moderate flux is expected to persist for much of the period, perhaps dropping out more persistently with any further fast wind enhancement later day 3 or more likely day 4 (27-28 Sep). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by MOSWOC REFM, which is currently running well above observed value, although fluence is expected to continue slightly above 27-day recurrence as the recent fast wind enhancement was barely observed on the previous rotation.