Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-24T00:14:46

GOES19 High energy (>2MeV) electron flux dropped out to Background with the onset of the fast wind of CH80/-, but has since seen a recovery to Moderate at diurnal maximum. An ongoing rising trend is expected, however the extent of this increase is low confidence due to the limited geomagnetic connection that was observed to this coronal hole. This results in the likelihood of reaching High at diurnal maximum, but only a slight chance of this becoming more persistently High for a time. No other enhancements to the flux are currently anticipated in this period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level, but with a slight chance of rising above, mainly day 2 (25 Sep) onward. This low chance of rising above the Active level is shown by MOSWOC REFM, however this is likely over-estimating the observed fluence. Conversely recurrence is showing no sign of any increase, however this is currently a poor indicator due to the fast wind not being significantly observed on the previous rotation.