Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-23T00:18:28

GOES19 High energy (>2MeV) electron flux had been predominately background to Moderate, but did become peak into high levels for a time. Mainly Background to Moderate flux is expected, before recovering to Moderate to High, most likely through Day 2 (24 Sep). Confidence is low with the likely peak that follows this increase, with periods of High likely remaining limited to diurnal maximum.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence was Active at first on day 1 (22 Sep), but fell below the active level later in the day. An increasing trend is forecast by Day 2-3 (24-25 Sep), this will bring a chance of reaching Active (1e8) by the end of day 3 (25 Sep) and into Day 4 (26 Sep). This is supported by MOSWOC REFM and 27-day recurrence which both suggest fluence will persist well below this level.