Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-16T00:18:21

Electron flux at GEO has been diurnally elevated in recent days, but the ongoing arrival of fast solar wind from CH78/- has reduced observed counts into the start of the new UTC week. A subsequent recovery is anticipated given the likely injection of electrons following recent geomagnetic activity, with the expected slow easing of solar wind speeds reducing any compression of the radiation belts. There remain uncertainty is the duration of the fast-stream regime and the associated timings and magnitude of any recovery in flux values.

Overall, there is an increasing likelihood of reaching Active fluence levels mid to late-week. MOSWOC REFM output appears to be providing sensible guidance for this increase but may be too quick initially to breach the active theshold.