MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-15T00:09:18
Electron flux at GEO has been elevated in recent days, but the arrival of fast solar wind from CH78/- is expected to reduce counts into the start of the new UTC week. A subsequent recovery is anticipated, potentially strong given the forecast solar wind speeds. The main uncertainty is the duration of the fast-stream regime and its associated geomagnetic activity.
Overall, there is a chance of reaching Active fluence levels by mid-week, though this lies outside the range of MOSWOC REFM, which otherwise provides reliable guidance for comfortably sub-Active fluence conditions in the interim.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-09-15T00:09:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |