Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-14T00:17:46

Diurnal flux is stabilising at a Moderate to High oscillation in the wake of the fast wind from CH75/+. A similar peak flux level is possible in the current UTC day, however the incoming fast wind from CH78/- will likely attenuate counts at GEO into the new UTC working week. An eventual recovery is expected, perhaps a strong recovery given the expected solar wind speeds involved, with the main uncertainty being the longevity of the upcoming fast regime and its geomagnetic activity.

Overall, there is perhaps a Chance of Active fluence by the middle of the coming UTC working week, with this lying outside the range of MOSWOC REFM, which is otherwise accepted in the meantime as offering good guidance in comfortably sub-Active fluence.