Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-13T00:11:06

High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES19, has been at manly Moderate, but did see a small rise to just below High through the diurnal peak of 12 Sep. Similar values are expected to continue day 1 (13 Sep) and perhaps into day 2 (14 Sep) but with a drop out likely to occur as the fast wind of CH78/- arrive, most likely on day 2 (14 Sep). Some recovery is likely through day 3-4 (15-16 Sep), perhaps reaching High at diurnal maximum, however based on recurrence, only minimal charging of the Van Allen Belts is expected, with any periods of High flux remaining limited.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to persist below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu), as supported by MOSWOC REFM. Although a rising trend is likely days 3-4 (15-16 Sep).