Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-12T00:19:02

High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-19, has been at moderate to background levels. A recovery in electron flux may occur in the near-term as the fast wind of CH75/+ continues to ease. Moderate, perhaps briefly High electron counts are expected days 1-2 (12 and 13 Sept) before the subsequent high-speed stream from CH78/- is forecast to deplete these electrons days 3 and 4 (14 and 15 Sept), with flux returning to near-background levels again.

The associated 24-hour fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but may display a slight upward trend in the coming days. MOSWOC REFM forecast is deemed to be providing good guidance, with fluence below the Active threshold throughout.