Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-11T00:16:08

High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-19, remained at Moderate levels, peaking at 987 pfu at 10/1715 UTC, most likely curtailed by the recent arrival of the fast solar wind from the northeast portion of CH75. As this fast wind subsides, electron flux is expected to rise again due to Van Allen belt charging, potentially leading to more prolonged periods of elevated high-energy electrons. The subsequent high-speed stream from CH78 is likely to deplete these electrons by day 4, with flux returning to near-background levels.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active thershold (1e8 integrated pfu) while displaying a gradual upward trend. While this anticipated increase is not yet reflected in the MOSWOC REFM model, it is understood that the model typically requires time to respond to recent enhancements in the solar wind.