Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-06T00:09:43

High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-19 is at moderate levels and is expected to persist mainly at this level until day 3 (07 Sep). Flux is then expected to rise as a response to the fast wind of CH75/+ which is expected early in the period. Although, a CME from 04 Sep, arriving later day 1 or day 2 may serve to clear electrons from their orbit. Therefore, the forecast confidence for electron flux is currently low, but with a rising chance of reaching High through the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold at first, with an increasing chance of becoming Active later in the period. REFM is currently providing good guidance for likely fluence levels in the next 4 days considering the contradictory HSS and CME effects on electrons.