Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-05T00:26:08

High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-19 is at moderate levels and is expected to persist mainly at this level until day 3 (07 Sep). Flux is then expected to rise as a response to the next coronal hole fast wind connection from CH75+/CH76+, which may occur late today (05 Sept) but more likely early tomorrow (06 Sept). Due to the polarity of these features being favoured at this time of year, this is likely to be a relatively strong connection, with flux rising to High later day 3 or into day 4 (06-07 Sep). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold at first, then rising above Active through days 3-4 (07-08 Sep). REFM is currently over-estimating the expected flux. This is likely due to being driven from the recent solar wind speeds, including the CME impact.