Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-03T00:28:23

High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-19 is at background, but may rise to Moderate to High at times days 1-3 (03-05 Sep) due to any charging of the Van Allen Belt that may have occurred as a consequence of the CME arrival late on 01 Sep. Any enhancement is expected to drop out day 3 (05 Sep), due to the onset of the next coronal hole fast wind connection from CH75+/CH76+. This is likely to be relatively strong connection, with flux rising to High once any initial suppression from the onset declines, perhaps by the end of day 4 (06 Sep) or just beyond this period.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but perhaps with a rising trend after the recent CME sourced enhancement. This is indicated in MOSWOC REFM, however this is considered to be currently over-estimating the likely fluence. There is a slightly increasing likelihood of seeing Active fluence by the end of day 4 (06 Sep), with this most likely to occur beyond this forecast period.