MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-09-02T00:24:15
High-energy (>2 MeV) electron flux observed by GOES-19 is currently at predominantly background values following the arrival of the 30 August CME. Any significant rebound in flux values due to the CME is unlikely until after the end of this forecast period.
The associated electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold. Notably, the latest MOSWOC REFM output does not yet account for the CME. However, a slight rise is possible during Day 3 or 4 (04-05 Sep).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-09-02T00:24:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |