Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-26T00:26:51

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been at mostly moderate levels over the last 24 hours, with a brief high interval between 25/1355 - 25/1550 UTC, peaking at 1430 pfu. The moderate trend is expected to continue with the fast winds from CH73/- expected through day 1 (26 Aug) helping to keep electrons suppressed away from the location of GEO. As the fast winds ease later in the period, then flux may see a resurgence as the radiation belt relaxes towards GEO and diurnally high levels become possible once again.

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is currently on a declining trend, and is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the start of the period, with a slight chance of rising by day 4 (29 Aug). MOSWOC REFM seems like good guidance with the below Active forecast trend and a possible rise toward the end of the period.