Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-25T00:13:44

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been at moderate to high levels over the last 24 hours, which is a slight rise from previous days. It appears that the fast wind of CH73 is currently arriving slightly earlier than originally thought. This is likely to suppress electron flux as wind speeds rise and compress the radiation belt, so diurnal high peaks are less likely during the start of this period. As the fast winds ease later in the period, then flux may see a resurgence as the radiation belt relaxes towards GEO and diurnally high levels become possible once again.

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is currently on a rising trend, but is likely to persist below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold at first, before potentially seeing a rising trend into Days 3 and 4 (27-28 Aug). There is a chance of Active fluence by the end of Day 4.