Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-24T00:10:51

High energy (>2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES19 has been at Background to Moderate for the last number of days, with no significant enhancement observed as a result of the weak connection to the recent fast wind on 19-20 Aug, despite its Strong speed. This was likely due to the polarity of the source coronal hole being unfavourable for a strong connection at this time of year. There is still the potential for periods of High flux as solar winds continue easing during the coming days, mainly during diurnal max, although a mainly decreasing trend is most likely. A more definitive reduction is likely once the CIR region ahead of CH73 is encountered, most likely day 2 or 3 (25-26 Aug).

The associated 24 hr electron fluence is currently running below REFM expectation, as this model is largely driven by the strength of the wind speed observed over a recent period, and does not account for the strength of the connection that occurred. With no further significant flux enhancement expected, Active fluence is not expected through much of the period, with a nod to an increase in electron fluence following the arrival of CH73 indicated on day 4 (27 Aug).