MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-23T00:15:56
GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been at predominantly moderate levels, as it has recently been suppressed by influence of the HSS from CH72/-. A resurgence in electron flux is likely during this guidance period as the HSS effects wane and the radiation belt relaxes back towards GEO. Based on recurrence, diurnally high flux levels are considered likely, particularly from Day 1 (23 Aug) onwards.
Fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and a steady trend. MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating the fluence values, although shows an increasing trend in the next couple of days, which is considered a good trend but with low confidence for the predicted values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-08-23T00:15:56 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |