Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-22T00:21:59

GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux has been at predominantly moderate levels, as it has recently been suppressed by influence of the HSS from CH72/-. A resurgence in electron flux is likely during this guidance period as the HSS effects wane and the radiation belt relaxes back towards GEO. Based on recurrence, diurnally high flux levels are considered likely, particularly from Day 2 (23 Aug) onwards.

Fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but is likely to continue to show an increasing trend during the period, with Active fluence becoming likely by Day 2 (23 Aug). MOSWOC REFM is currently overestimating the fluence values, and shows a declining trend in contrast to the forecast of an increasing trend. Therefore the REFM model is considered to be giving poor guidance.