MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-21T00:18:07
GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux is at background to Moderate levels, currently suppressed by influence of the HSS from CH72/-. Confidence is increasing for a resurgence in electron flux during this guidance period as HSS effects from CH72/- wane and the electron belts around GEO begin to relax. Based on recurrence, High levels of flux are considered likely, particularly from Day 2 (22 Aug) onwards.
Fluence levels below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level on Day 1 (21 Aug) increases with a chance of exceeding this threshold on Days 2, 3 and 4 (22 to 24 Aug). MOSWOC REFM continues to overestimate the timing of electron fluence enhancement, but the rising trend indicated through the period is considered good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2025-08-21T00:18:07 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 5% |