Forecaster summary - Issued 2025-08-20T00:30:08

GOES high energy (>2MeV) electron flux is at Moderate levels, currently suppressed due to the influence of strong CH72/-. Confidence is rather low initially as there is the potential for a CME glance on Day 1 (20 Aug) that could result in a temporary dropout in electron counts. That said, confidence is high for a resurgence in electron flux later in the period as HSS effects from CH72/- wane and the electron belts around GEO begin to relax. Based off of recurrence, High levels of flux are considered likely to occur, particularly on Days 3 and 4 (22 and 23 Aug). 

Fluence levels are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level on Day 1 and 2 (20 and 21 Aug) but increases to a strong chance of exceeding this threshold on Days 3 and 4 (22 and 23 Aug). MOSWOC REFM has slightly overestimated electron fluence in the past day or so, but the rising trend indicated later in the period is considered good guidance.